Know The Now – Market resilience & cycle evolution

It’s been a terrific rally. Turning bullish in June 2022 (see Know the Now, “Time to Buy?” – July 22), and reiterating our bullish call in late March 2023, we focus this month on rally characteristics and positioning. We generate a predicted P/E using an interest rate driven regression model. The predicted P/E is currently 22.1, while the actual P/E is 23.2, implying markets are now marginally above fair value.